6  Relocation-emigration

6.1 Past proportion of relocation on emigration*

6.1.1 Differences by sex

Why this check? Can the variable sex be omitted in the prediction?

Proportion of relocation on emigration* by district, age, sex (Swiss only)

Figure 6.1: proportion of relocation by district, age, sex (Swiss only)

Proportion of relocation on emigration* by district, age, sex (foreign only)

Figure 6.2: proportion of relocation by district, age, sex (foreign only)

6.1.2 Differences by origin

Why this check? First, to emphasize the need of origin in the model. Second, the plots can be used to get an idea of the value of the age threshold parameter.

Figure 6.3: proportion of relocation by district, age and origin

6.1.3 Which base years?

6.1.3.1 Year, origin

Why? Several plots to determine the base years.

Figure 6.4: proportion by year and origin

6.1.3.2 Year, age, origin

Figure 6.5: propportion by year, age and origin

6.1.4 Aggregate over sex

This plot is the starting point (before smoothing, age corrections).

6.1.4.1 Focus on age

Processes by district, age, year 2025, Swiss only.

Figure 6.6: processes by district, age, last year, Swiss only

Processes by district, age, year 2025, foreign only.

Figure 6.7: processes by district, age, last year, foreign only

6.1.4.2 Focus on years

Processes by district (selected), year, age (selected), Swiss only

Figure 6.8: processes by district (selected), year, age (selected), Swiss only

Processes by district (selected), year, age (selected), foreign only

Figure 6.9: processes by district (selected), year, age (selected), foreign only

6.1.5 Relocation and emigration* after smoothing: dyao

Processes by district (selected), age, year 2025, origin.

Figure 6.10: processes by district, age, last year, origin

6.1.6 Proportion of relocation on emigration* after smoothing: dyao

Proportion by district, age, year 2025 and origin.

Figure 6.11: proportion smooothed by district, age, last year and origin

6.1.7 Smoothing the proportion

Figure 6.12: processes by district (selected), age and origin (smoothed)

6.1.8 Proportions: different aggregation levels

Figure 6.13: proportions from different aggregation levels (2025)

6.1.9 Smoothing (after different levels of aggregation were brought together)

Figure 6.14: one proportion after smoothing (2025)

6.2 Prediction of the relocation proportion on emigration*

6.2.1 Smoothing

Figure 6.15: prediction by district (selected), last prediction year, age, origin

6.2.2 Final prediction

predicted proportions by district, year, age, Swiss only

Figure 6.16: predicted proportions by district, year, age, Swiss only

predicted proportions by district, year, age, foreign only

Figure 6.17: predicted proportions by district, year, age, foreign only